論大地工程的不確定性與風險評估

紀雲曜、李雅芬、李上妤

摘要

大地工程中經常利用統計機率方法進行分析，如山崩、液化、港埠基礎及環境問題等，應用的階段包括工址評選、現場調查、設計、方案評選及施工，並對各階段所承受的風險進行評估。本文首先由「機率」的定義，說明大地工程如何考慮機率，並以邊坡穩定為案例，探討如何進行機率式評估，及應用機率方法所得到的結果進一步確定風險值，最後提出未來尚待研究的課題，以供國土利用規劃參考。

關鍵字: 大地工程、風險、機率、評估

紀雲曜：長榮大學 土地管理與開發學系 助理教授 (yunyao@mail.cju.edu.tw )。李雅芬：成功大學 土木工程研究所博士候選人。李上妤：長榮大學 土地管理與開發學系碩士。

©2006 Crisis Management Society, Taiwan, R.O.C.  Manuscript received 26,September, 2005; accepted 28, December, 2005 JCM060300444PBS

Evaluating Uncertainty and Risk in Geotechnical Engineering

Y. Y. Chi, Y. F. Lee, Y. S. Lee

ABSTRACT

The statistical probabilistic methods are used in Geotechnical Engineering such as landslide, liquefaction, port foundation, environmental problems and so on. The stages for applying probabilistic methods include site decision, field investigation, design, scheme decision and construction. Plus the bearing risks of every stage are evaluated, too. First, the purpose of this paper is to introduce how the probability can be considered in geotechnical engineering by the definition of probability. Slope stable was taken as study case. This paper probed how the probabilistic evaluation can be proceed and confirmed the risk value further according to the results gained form application of probabilistic methods. Finally, the issues required for further study were discussed. It can be for reference in geotechnical engineering practices.

KEYWORDS: Geotechnical Engineering, risk, probability, evaluation

Assistant Professor Chi is in the Department of Land management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University , Taiwan (yunyao@mail.cju.edu.tw)., Y.F. Lee is the doctoral student of Department of Civil Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Y.S. Lee is the master of Department of Land management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University

© 2006 Crisis Management Society, Taiwan, R.O.C.  Manuscript received 26,September, 2005; accepted 28, December, 2005                                                            JCM060300444PBS