財務危機預警模型之實徵性研究

陳玟曄

摘要

本研究目的在探討財務危機預測模型是否可以發揮預期作用。本研究以Discrimination Analysis與Logistic Analysis初步探討企業財務危機預測的機率，研究期間涵蓋1999年至2005年29家財務危機公司，搭配29家營運正常公司。實證結果顯示其正確性有限；故本研究更進一步地從股價報酬率來加以驗證財務危機是否可以事先預測。

關鍵字：財務危機、預警模型、財務比率、股價報酬率。

陳玟曄：國立高雄師範大學 工業科技教育所人力資源組碩士研究生 (nancy0119@gmail.com )。

© 2006 Crisis Management Society, Taiwan, R.O.C.  Manuscript received 25, September, 2004; accepted 2, January, 2006            JCM060300498ENS

A Study on Prediction Model of Financial Distress

W. Y. Chen

ABSTRACT

The subject of this study was to probe into the prediction model of financial distress and develop a prediction procedure. In this study, twenty-nine distress firms along with the twenty-nine non-distress firms were collected as a sample during the period of 1999-2005.  The empirical result indicated that the accuracy of a prediction model was not so high.  Also, the study used the return of stock price to authenticate the financial distress that could be predicted. 

KEYWORDS: financial distress, prediction model, financial ratios, return of stock price

Miss Chen is the graduate of Institute of Industrial Technology Education Human Resource Division, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Taiwan.   (nancy0119@gmail.com).

© © 2006 Crisis Management Society, Taiwan, R.O.C.  Manuscript received 25,September, 2004; accepted 2, January, 2006                                                             JCM060300498ENS