臺灣股市之風險控管與危機處理 -- 依循巴菲特投資法則

The risk controls and management of crisis in Taiwan stock

蔣榮宗 曾仁清 林振東

嶺東科技大學 管理學院

Department of Business Administration

Ling Tung University

摘要

    利用大盤漲勢的轉折點 , 及股市動力模型的分析 , 慎選投資證券種類 , 由集群分析獲得低本益比 , 高成交量為投資標的 . 由定額定量分批承接方式 , 當達到滿足點時 , 即獲利了結 , 另外 , 對風險的控管我們以 “停損點”的方式 , 斷然認賠出場 . 。另外 , 全球股市互動關係 , 亦提供臺灣股市漲幅趨勢的一個重要指標 , 對台股的投資方式 , 尋找一簡單可依循的投資策略組合 , 尤其參考巴菲特之長期持有策略法則慎選一些績優股 ; 更進一步 針對突發利空與地雷股之危機處理亦尋求一最佳對策 ..

關鍵字 : 集群分析 ; 巴菲特策略法則 ; 地雷股 ; 危機處理 ; 牛市 ; 熊市。

Abstract

According to the following trends of Taiwan stock weighted index, the turning points amid the bearish and bullish markets are derived from the weekly charts of the indices combined with the multiple time series. In this study, we analyze the timing for the private investors to purchase several stocks under the risk exposure based on the trading volumes and PE ratios. Like the game theory, we try to find a useful method for investors to beat the market to get twenty percent rate of returns. For the fixed costs, the portfolios will be adjusted by the psychology and the irrational actions of the market participants. Actually, the weekly charts of the prices always reflect the trends upwards or downwards. Here, The risks control of and crisis management for the investors based on Buffet's strategies during the periods of the bearish market and incident events are needed in his study.

 Keywords: Cluster Analysis; Buffet's Strategies; Crisis Management; Bullish markets; Bearish markets