整合式量化風險分析系統之開發

The Development of an Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment System

易逸波、黃奕豪、陳青宏、鄒年盛
Y. P. I, Y. H. Huang, C. H. Chen and N. S. Zou

國立雲林科技大學 環境與安全衛生工程系

摘要

  本研究目的為開發出一套整合型毒化災之三維空間危害風險評估方法,利用火災動態模擬器(Fire Dynamics Simulator, FDS)與火焰加速模擬器 (Flame Acceleration Simulator, FLACS) 等兩套計算流體力學軟體來評估製程內部人員,受到火災、爆炸及毒氣擴散等危害之個別後果影響。再利用以C#程式語言撰寫之整合型量化風險分析系統 (Integrated Quantitative Risk Analysis System, IQRAS) 來評估人員之個人整體風險 (IR)。 本研究模擬製異丙醇燃燒事件、氫氣洩漏產生爆炸與氨氣洩漏產生之毒性氣雲擴散對廠房內設備及人員所造成之影響,並計算七種危害因子 (火災熱輻射、一氧化碳、濃煙、壓力、脈衝壓、爆炸熱輻射、毒氣擴散)之最大物理量、致死機率及個人風險,最後利用 SmokeView、Flowvis與 Matfor 繪圖軟體輸出動態影像、等曲面圖及切面圖來進行後果及風險分析。 本研究成功地整合了兩種不同網格系統之CFD軟體,並充分展現了毒化災三維空間危害風險分析技術之實施流程。研究結果發現,在假設沒有任何防護措施或削減措施皆失效的情況下,本研究所設定之無塵實驗室區域的整合毒化災三維個人風險約介於 1.71 × 10-9 (人/年) ~ 3.21 × 10-5 (人/年) 之間。

關鍵字:風險評估、火災動態模擬器、火焰加速模擬器、火災爆炸、毒氣。

ABSTRACT

  The purpose of this research is to establish an integrated method that can assess risk of toxic and chemical disaster within a three-dimensional space. This research employed Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and Flame Acceleration Simulator (FLACS), both belong to the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire and explosion simulation software, to explore the consequences of personnel injury under fire, explosion and toxic gas release in a semiconductor laboratory. Later, an Integrated Quantitative Risk Analysis System (IQRAS) programmed by the C# language was used to assess the Individual Risk (IR) of the personnel. This research designed and simulated the following cases: the isopropanol (IPA) burning, the hydrogen explosion event, and the ammonia dispersion event. This research not only assessed the impact of hazard factors on the equipment and personnel of a semiconductor plant, but also calculated the maximum physical effect, the death probability, and the individual risk of seven types of hazardous factors (thermal radiation of fire, carbon monoxide, smoke, pressure, impulse pressure, thermal radiation of explosion, and toxic gas dispersion). Finally, this research output the dynamic images, iso-surface plots, and transection plots via the graphical software (includes SmokeView, FlowVis, and MatFor) to implement the consequence and risk analysis of the simulation results. This research successfully integrates two grid systems of different CFD software and fully demonstrates the implementing process of the integrated 3D risk analysis techniques. It was found that the integrated individual risk of the cleanroom laboratory is between 1.71 × 10-9 (person/year) to 3.21 × 10-5 (person/year) if the laboratory has no protection or all its mitigation measures are failed.

Keywords: Risk Assessment; Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS); Flame Acceleration Simulator (FLACS); Fire Explosion; Toxic Gas