運用系統性決策方法及R軟體迴歸分析建置投標決策系統

Using Systematic Decision-making Methods and R-Regression Analysis to Establish Bidding Decision System

張寶慧、許碧敏
P. H. Chang and B. M. Hsu

正修科技大學 工業工程與管理系


摘要

國內外之企業、法人或政府組織因應需求會產生採購行為,而為防止採購行為產生弊端以及尋求更多的廠商以購買到物美價廉的商品,大多採取招標方式進行採購,以得到較低的購買成本。而相對地,身處業務單位,則需透過客戶的招標投標方式才能取得訂單。在準備投標的過程中,是否參與投標及如何決定適當的投標價格實為決策者面臨之重大考驗。本研究以系統性決策方法及R統計軟體迴歸分析來建置投標決策系統,於此決策系統中,以預算金額進行決標金額之預測,並蒐集國內某一法人機構在2016~2017年間預算在5千萬元以下之科學技術研究發展購案決標資料共516筆進行分析,建立決標金額之預測模式。以協助決策者快速有效地做出投標決策。

關鍵字:系統性決策方法、R統計軟體、迴歸分析、投標決策。

ABSTRACT

Domestic and foreign enterprises, Corporate Organization, or government organizations will generate procurement behaviors in response to demand. To prevent the occurrence of abuses in procurement activities and to seek more suppliers to purchase inexpensive and high-quality goods, Most of them adopt tendering methods to purchase, so as to obtain lower purchase cost. On the other hand, if you are in a business unit, you need to obtain the order through the bidding method of the customer. In the process of preparing bids, whether or not to participate in bidding and how to determine the appropriate bid price is a major test for decision makers. In this study, a systematic decision-making method and regression analysis with R statistical software were used to construct a bid decision system. In this decision system, the budget amount was used to predict the amount of award. In addition, 516 scientific and technological research and development awards for a Corporate Organization from 2016 to 2017 with budget under 50 million NT dollars were collected for analysis and verification. To assist decision makers in making bid decisions quickly and efficiently.

Keywords: Systematic Decision-Making Method; R Statistical Software; Regression Analysis; Bid Decision System.