摘要

近年共機擾台次數頻繁，加上2022年美國眾議院議長裴洛西訪臺，中國為表不滿，進行大規模軍事演習，促使台海緊張情勢急遽上升，美國萌生在臺儲備大量彈藥的決心，倘若臺海衝突發生，期望延長臺灣獨立作戰時間[1]，爰此，可預判未來解繳彈藥量與部隊戰、演訓彈藥需求量將會大幅增加，然而後勤部隊平時任務繁重，加上近年彈藥人力已呈現下降趨勢，未來恐造成人力與彈藥供需失衡。本研究運用系統動態學探討影響彈藥供需模式之關鍵變數，接續根據關鍵變數，發展建構動態模型，並進行情境政策分析與模擬，探討不同情境政策(解繳彈藥量、訓練彈需求量、每日可作業工時)對於彈補供需比、彈檢供需比與訓練彈藥供需比的影響趨勢，相關政策建議將於文內探討。

關鍵字：彈藥補給、彈藥人力、系統動態學。

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the number of co-host disturbances has been frequent, in addition, in 2022, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Patricia Pelosi, will visit Taiwan. To express dissatisfaction, China will conduct large-scale military exercises and declare its national strength, prompting a sharp rise in tension in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. is determined to store a large amount of ammunition in Taiwan. Extend Taiwan’s independent combat time (New York Times, 2022). Therefore, it can be predicted that the amount of ammunition released in the future and the demand for ammunition for combat and training will increase significantly; however, the logistics force has heavy tasks at ordinary times, and manpower has declined in recent years

This trend may cause an imbalance between manpower supply and demand. This study uses system dynamics to explore the key variables that affect the ammunition supply and demand model. Based on the key variables, the dynamic model is developed and constructed, and policy analysis and simulation are conducted to explore different policies (amount of ammunition purchased, training ammunition demand, daily working hours) on the impact trend of ammunition supply-demand ratio and training ammunition supply-demand ratio, and its related policy recommendations will be discussed in this article.

KEYWORDS: Ammunition Supply; Ammunition Manpower; System Dynamics.